Analysts IDATE predicts more than 915 million LTE subscriptions worldwide by the end of 2016 and expects first billion to be exceeded during 2017. Asia-Pacific is expected to represent a sizeable 41.6% of the total, North America 21.6%, Africa/Middle East 7.5%, Eastern Europe 4.9% and Western Europe 15.8%.
Analysts IDATE predicts more than 915 million LTE subscriptions worldwide by the end of 2016 and expects first billion to be exceeded during 2017. Asia-Pacific is expected to represent a sizeable 41.6% of the total, North America 21.6%, Africa/Middle East 7.5%, Eastern Europe 4.9% and Western Europe 15.8%.
The growth of mobile broadband traffic is putting pressure on mobile networks and is driving the need for more spectrums in sub-1 GHz frequency bands for LTE and LTE-Advanced networks. Harmonization across many geographical areas is crucial as it would enable significant economies of scale for LTE devices and would facilitate international roaming. The first Digital Dividend has already provided new spectrum for the mobile sector. Notably, the 700 MHz band in the USA and the 800 MHz band in Europe are today used for commercial LTE services.
Following the 2012 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-12), the 700 MHz now appears the most promising option for a harmonized frequency band across Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America. IDATE anticipate further discussions at WRC- 15 and technical conditions have to be defined in Europe before then.
The Asia-Pacific region is taking the lead in this field and has already defined the ‘APT band plan’ which is likely to be adopted in Latin America, Africa, Middle East and Europe. This plan is not compatible with the US plan, which was defined before the 2008 auction and does not allow any compatibility or roaming for future LTE handsets. The 700 MHz band with the APT band plan could become a harmonized frequency band for LTE worldwide.
The 700 MHz band corresponds to the first Digital Dividend in the USA and in Asia-Pacific, whereas it could become the second Digital Dividend in the EMEA region. At WRC-12, African and Middle Eastern countries requested that the 694-790 MHz spectrum be allocated for mobile broadband services.
Many observers insist that Europe should not make the same mistake as it did with the 800 MHz band – where the auctions took place without coordination leading to undesirable early starts in some countries with a limited range of compatible devices. The harmonisation process in Europe should be clear with precise technical parameters and a realistic roadmap taking into account the timetable of existing broadcasting services. 2020 seems to be a realistic target for the launch of LTE services in the 700 MHz band in Europe, but some countries, such as France and perhaps Germany, are already planning to organize auctions as soon as 2015 even though the spectrum will only be available at a later date.
Public safety networks, which want to support mobile broadband services, are also starting to use parts of the 700 MHz band in the USA and the UAE have already allocated spectrum for their use earlier this year. Discussions are under way in Europe to address this question.
In the USA, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has suggested an innovative auction format, called ‘incentive auctions’. The objective is to change the use of UHF band (470-700 MHz) starting with the 600 MHz band and to enable new services on a licensed basis. The process would start with a reorganization of the UHF band and a re-allocation for licensed mobile services, such as 3G and LTE.